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Written by Jason Montoya. Posted in Society.

Above & Below the Line: Leveraging Vision To Inform My Political Activism Going Forward

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The 2024 presidential election did not pan out the way I hoped. Unfortunately, the nominee of my party won. So, we've got four more years of madness ahead of us. We're all heading into the abyss together. 

As the chaos and confusion unfold, I don't want to waste my time obsessing about it (I've got things to do!), so I'm defining what to notice and what to defer or ignore. Here's how I plan to sift the noise and look at what matters most.

I had a great conversation with Theresa M. Ward on the Share Life podcast and she shared this powerful insight about how to prioritize the volume of issues that flow our way. She spoke about a boat, the water line, and holes above and below it. Here's a clip of that part of our conversation.

"There's a concept about the water line. Picture a ship and it's sitting in the water and part of the hull is underneath the water and part of it is above.

Failures that happen above the water line are not going to sink the ship, right? So if you poke a hole in the side of the boat that's above the water line, okay. This is inconvenient. We will patch it up with some duct tape or some tar or whatever and we will we will sail on. And I think it's important for leaders and mentors to allow people to fail above the waterline. 

Now, if it's, hey, you're 22 and we're going to just fly you out to see our biggest client alone, unprepared. And if you mess up, you're going to ruin 70 percent of the company's revenue. Like that's a below-the-waterline failure. Leaders should not set up their folks that are going to sink the ship." - Theresa M. Ward

When it comes to what matters most, it's the holes in the boat that fall below the water line that are most critical. Those are the issues that will cause the boat to take on water and eventually sink. Above the waterline, issues may be problematic, but they won't sink the boat, so I'll defer to others on that front.

This water line metaphor describes my approach to political activism since the fall of 2023; and as a Republican for Harris after Biden stepped down. Sometimes I got distracted with issues above the line, but for the most part, I was disciplined about focusing on communicating the critical threats.

I believe Trump is a below-the-water-line threat to both America and the church which is a large part of why I've spoken up. With the stakes this high, I did not want to regret not speaking up. 

Going forward, this clarity and priority also helps me avoid the chaos and confusion that Trump embodies and propagates (as he did last time and that I expect to be magnified this time). And as limited and dependent people, we are limited to a few things. Margaret Heffernan, in a 2024 episode the podcast shared so eloquently in the clip below.

- Margaret Heffernan

It's hard to withstand a slew of wretchedness, nonsense, and outrage, so focusing on what matters most helps me keep my eyes on the important while deferring the rest to others in their respective areas or more localized versions below the waterline. Figure out what you're one thing is, that you love, and get active in your participation.

And whatever you decide, use your voice and speak up to your friends, family, and community. This will create an important tension for driving positive change.

American Vision & Anti-Vision: Above and Below the Water Line

"I don't think it's worth the effort to try and persuade somebody that they're wrong. You have to persuade them of something that is better." - Margaret Heffernan

In light of this idea to lead with a vision, I've mapped out an American vision during this past year.

Here is that core guiding vision and anti-vision framework in its simplest form, for defining what is above and below the water line of the American boat. The anti-vision is simply the opposite of the vision. 

  1. For Responsible Freedom / Against Tyranny
  2. For Shared Power / Against Consolidated & Unaccountable Power
  3. For Honest Election Outcomes / Against  Undermining Elections and Their Outcomes
If you'd like to understand these ideas in greater depth, check out my concise explanation here or you can read my lengthy explanation here.

Threats Below The Water Line

As he has consistently done throughout his life, I expect Trump to move away from the vision of freedom and towards the anti-vision of tyranny. These below-the-water-line issues are things he's done in the past and which I expect him to do again.

Where Trump embraces tyranny and lawlessness, and where he attempts to defy the Constitution and consolidate power, I'll be hyper-focused. And where Trump seeks to undermine and override election outcomes, I'll be paying close attention. Hopefully, I'll have nothing to notice.

Here are some examples of how that could unfold, if I do have something to notice.

1. Consolidating Power & Overriding Elections

The biggest threat I foresee is in 2028 when Trump's term is supposed to end.

Will we get a peaceful transfer of power to another president or will Trump once again undermine our election system with mass deception, an unconstitutional power grab, and a violent insurrection?

I was anticipating a bigger sequel to Jan 6 in this recent election, but with a Trump victory, that has been delayed to 2028. I hope I'm absolutely wrong and will be happy to say so if I am.

We recently got a glimpse of how it could unfold. In December 2024, the South Korean president declared martial law and deployed the military in an attempt to grab power.

Here's how Gwynne Dyer describes how the population swiftly responded to protect their democracy.

"South Korean politicians and ordinary citizens both mobilised with admirable speed. Hundreds of thousands of civilians were in the streets in hours, while politicians of all parties headed immediately to the National Assembly. Even Yoon’s own party condemned his actions.

By Wednesday morning enough politicians had struggled through the police lines to constitute a quorum. (The police had tried to force their way into the building but had been repelled by parliamentary officials.) First the members of the National Assembly cancelled martial law by a unanimous vote, and then they voted to impeach the president.

It was an exemplary defence of democracy, and South Koreans of all political colours should be congratulated for their actions. With the partial exception of the many senior members of the military and police forces who largely obeyed Yoon’s orders until he panicked and cancelled them."

Incredible. It's also a stark contrast to America's response to Trump's power grab attempt. And I'm skeptical Trump supporting America would respond the same way. Instead of condemning Trump's power grab, Republicans have valorized and defended Trump's power grab attempt and America has given him the presidency again. This was often, and tragically, spearheaded by Christian leaders. On brand, one of Trump's first actions in his second term this past week was to pardon all of the criminal insurrectionists, including the most violent of them.

Back to Korea. There was a critical choice made by the military.

"What the South Korean military and police seem to have done in practice was to obey all of the president’s orders up to but not including the use of lethal violence against the civilian population (which Yoon may not have ordered in any case)."

Let us hope the American military would do the same thing, should something like this unfold in the next four years. 

2. Defying the Constitutional Order

Beyond that specific threat, there is also the threat of defiance of the Constitution. I'll be watching for Trump's response to the Supreme Court, should they deem his desires, executive orders, and actions as unconstitutional.

If they deem something unconstitutional, how will Trump and his administration respond? There is no enforcement mechanism to require the president to submit and adhere to a Supreme Court ruling (which is why it's important to choose a president who values the rule of law instead of a lawless president). The first Trump administration was chaotic, but there were many good people around him. Now, instead of good people around him, it's criminals and liars or those who go along with criminals and liars.

So, if Trump does not like the outcome and wants to do what he wants to do anyway, the only mechanism to stop him is through impeachment and removal. If the actions require the collaboration of states or other institutions, they could defy the president on constitutional grounds. The Republican Congress, Senate, states, and supporters will likely go along with Trump (as they've demonstrated repeatedly thus far, and since Trump has purged everyone not loyal to him). If all fails, it falls upon the population as a whole to step up, as we saw in South Korea.

This is a reminder that when the American South seceded from the union before the Civil War, they defied the federal government and our rule of law to do so. They did not pass a bill and they did not get a Supreme Court ruling. They simply left the union. To stop them required a civil war.

God willing, we'll make it through the abyss to the other side. To keep my sanity, I'll be staying attuned to the below-the-waterline issues and trying to tune out everything above unless there is a clear way I can personally make a positive impact.

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